Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has got important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
